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News
Iran, China Forming Major Alliance
 

Just as the foreign policy team of the United States is getting a major overhaul with the resignation of Secretary of State Colin Powell comes new word of a major, growing alliance between "axis of evil" member Iran and communist China.

The relationship, which has been nurtured by both countries for decades, is growing exponentially now, primarily out of China's insatiable energy needs and Iran's increasing hunger for consumer goods, as the economies of both countries continue to expand.

What that means for the United States in the short term is an inability to pressure the Islamic republic into following policies beneficial to Washington. What it could mean for the long haul is a stronger, more menacing Iran and China, each buoyed by needs being met by the other.

According to the Washington Post, China's energy needs have climbed nearly 40 percent in the first months of 2004. Meanwhile, Iran  whose population has doubled since the 1979 revolution  is increasing meeting those needs in exchange for access to China's burgeoning low-cost manufacturing industry.

History of Cooperation

For all intents, the match is a natural. But things weren't always rosy between the two powers.

Before the revolution, the last Chinese official to meet with the late Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was Chinese Communist Party chief Hua Kuo-feng.

The meeting "left a very strong negative feeling about China among Iranians," Abbas Maleki, director of the Caspian Institute, a Tehran research organization, told the Post.

Ties have improved greatly since then, however. In August 2001, Iranian Ambassador to China Mohammad Hossein Malaek held a reception in Beijing to mark "the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Iran and China," China's People's Daily reported.

"In terms of economic relations, China has become one of the most important trade partners of Iran," said the paper. "At present, the Sino-Iranian political relations remain steady, and trade and economic ties are also developing fast"

In March 2002, Wu Yi, a member of China's State Council, made a visit to Iran to meet with President Mohammad Khatami. Again, the focus of the visit was to improve trade and economic ties.

"The bilateral trade between China and Iran has increased fast in recent years, with trade volume reaching some 3.3 billion U.S. dollars last year, several times higher than that some 10 years ago," People's Daily reported.

In August 2003, the Iran's IRNA reported that Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi traveled to Beijing for more economic talks with Wu, giving precedence to "transportation, construction of dams, power plants, petrochemical industry along with gas and oil projects."

And in July of this year, Iranian Parliament Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel praised the Sino-Iranian relationship, highlighting Beijing's support for Iran's nuclear programs.

Economics

Economically, the cooperation between both nations now amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars over many years.

For instance, said the Post, in October "the two countries signed a preliminary accord worth $70 billion to $100 billion by which China will purchase Iranian oil and gas and help develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, near the Iraqi border."

And, "earlier this year, China agreed to buy $20 billion in liquefied natural gas from Iran over a quarter-century," the paper continued.

For Iran, however, more is better when it comes to China. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said this month, according to China Business Weekly, "Japan is our number one energy importer for historical reasons . . . but we would like to give preference to exports to China."

That position, no doubt, will not set well with Japan, which has seen its relationship with China cool in recent years.

Just last week Japan detected a Chinese nuclear submarine in its territorial waters  perhaps not ironically near underwater natural gas fields and several islands surrounded by rich fishing waters claimed by Japan.

China and Iran are currently cooperating on about 100 different projects, many of them infrastructure- and energy-related.

Military Cooperation

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the growing Iran-China alliance is the Islamic republic's access to the improving technology being developed, deployed and utilized by the People's Liberation Army.

Nowhere are U.S. concerns greater than in the area of ballistic missile technology. American officials have sanctioned Chinese companies for improperly transferring such technology in January 2002 and as recently as early this year, but that hasn't stopped the transfers, experts and analysts believe.

And now, as Iran continues to develop its nuclear program, U.S., European and Israeli officials worry Iran is using the missile technology to build better weapons  weapons that eventually could carry nuclear warheads.

In terms of its nuclear weapons ambitions, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has determined that China, along with Pakistan and Russia, have probably provided nuclear technology to Tehran.

The accomplishments have been noted by Iranian officials.

"We are on the threshold of entering the international space club ... Until 1998 we were producing short-range missiles and today we are into the production of long-range surface-to-surface missiles like Shahab 1 and 2 which deter the enemy," Deputy Defense Minister for Space Affairs Nasser Maliki said in October while announcing Iran's first launch of a "homegrown" military satellite in 2005.

"It is a small satellite which will prove the capacity of the Islamic Republic of Iran in space technology," he said, in comments posted on military Web site Voicesmag.com.

UPI added that currently only 10 countries  one of them China  even possess satellites.

And sanctions probably won't do much good, say some analysts. That's because whatever sanctions the U.S. or United Nations may place on either Iran or China, they are likely to get from each other anyway.

U.S. Fueling Alliance?

Some analysts speculate the growing influence, military and economic power of the United States, along with NATO's eastern expansion into central Asia, is fueling new alliances, among them Iran and China.

"Politically, the two countries share a common interest in checking the inroads being made by NATO in Asia. . . . The presence of outsiders does not bode well for peace and security," Ali Sabzevari wrote in the English-speaking Kayhan International.

And, as the U.S. moves to contain China, along with the two remaining "axis of evil" countries  the name given to Iraq, Iran and North Korea by President Bush in his first term  the alliance is only likely to strengthen.

What's In Store

According to the CIA, the most likely threats to the U.S. in the future, besides terrorism, are Iran and China.

In an ominous February 2001 warning, months before the 9/11 attacks, the CIA warned that Osama bin Laden and his associates continued to pose the most immediate danger to Americans, former CIA Director George Tenet told lawmakers.

But in addition to bin Laden  a threat which has been borne out  Iran and China also made the list.

"Never in my experience has American intelligence had to deal with such a dynamic set of concerns affecting such a broad range of U.S. interests. Never have we had to deal with such a high quotient of uncertainty," Tenet told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

Iran posed a dual threat because of its propensity to sponsor terrorism and its pursuit of first-rate conventional military might.

U.S. intelligence analysts and Bush administration officials have expressed concern that, with the help of terrorist-sponsoring nations like Iran, al Qaeda or another terror group could eventually acquire a nuclear weapon or other weapon of mass destruction to use against the continental United States.